USDJPY: the pair fell into the 146.00 area after the FOMC minutes publication

The USDJPY rate fell into the 146.00 area as the dollar moderately weakened after the FOMC minutes confirmed the regulator's intention to cut rates. Details – in our analysis for 10 July 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the FOMC minutes showed the regulator is ready to cut interest rates at the end of this year
• Current trend: a downward movement is observed
• USDJPY forecast for 10 July 2025: 147.18 or 145.75

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen strengthens against the US dollar following the publication of the FOMC's latest meeting minutes, which showed that most committee members are ready to cut interest rates at the end of this year. Additional pressure on the dollar comes from growing trade tensions, as negotiations between the US and Japan have apparently stalled for now.

US President Donald Trump recently announced a 25% tariff on Japanese goods from 1 August and ruled out the possibility of an extension. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called these measures "regrettable" and confirmed Tokyo's desire to continue negotiations with Washington to reach a mutually beneficial agreement.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY pair is declining on the H4 chart, reversing down from the local daily high at 147.1800. The Alligator indicator is moving downwards, confirming the current downward trend. Local support is currently at 145.75.

The USDJPY forecast for today suggests that the pair may continue its decline towards support at 145.75 if bears manage to maintain their initiative. An upward movement could be expected if bulls manage to push quotes up and consolidate above 146.50, then growth towards resistance at 147.18 may follow.

Summary

The USDJPY price fell into the area around 146.00 following the publication of the June FOMC meeting minutes. Tokyo and Washington continue negotiations on trade tariffs, which will come into force on 1 August.