Short-term USDCAD dynamics remain bearish

The USDCAD pair continues to decline amid positive macroeconomic data from Canada. The current quote stands at 1.3763. Details — in our analysis for 15 December 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• In October 2025, Canada’s wholesale trade volume increased by 0.1% month-over-month
• Growth in building permits in Canada in October 2025 was the fastest since June 2024
• Positive signals from individual sectors of the Canadian economy increase pressure on USDCAD
• USDCAD forecast for 15 December 2025: 1.3690

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD pair is correcting but remains under selling pressure. Investors’ attention is still focused on the geopolitical environment, which continues to generate heightened volatility in commodity and currency markets.

Macroeconomic data from Canada present a mixed picture. In October 2025, wholesale trade volumes rose by 0.1% month-over-month to CAD 86.0 billion, while the market had expected a decline of 0.1%. Additional support for domestic demand came from the construction sector. In October 2025, the value of building permits issued surged by 14.9% compared to the previous month, reaching CAD 13.8 billion — the fastest pace of growth since June 2024.

Positive signals from individual sectors of the Canadian economy are increasing pressure on USDCAD, strengthening the Canadian dollar and keeping the short-term outlook for USDCAD bearish.

USDCAD technical analysis

The USDCAD pair is consolidating below the EMA-65, confirming persistent bearish pressure. The price structure points to the formation of a Triangle pattern with a projected target near 1.3680. The USDCAD outlook for today suggests a continuation of the decline, with the nearest target at 1.3690.

An additional signal in favor of the bearish scenario is provided by the Stochastic Oscillator: the signal lines are bouncing off the descending trend line, indicating that bearish momentum remains intact.

A firm consolidation below the 1.3745 level will confirm the downside scenario and signal a breakout below the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern.

Summary

Short-term USDCAD dynamics remain under pressure. Technical analysis of USDCAD points to a continuation of the bearish move with a target at 1.3680, provided that the price holds below the 1.3745 level.

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