Amid speculation about China’s attempts to strike a trade deal with the US, global stock indices recouped losses seen on 2 April 2025. Find out more in our analysis and forecast for global indices for 6 May 2025.
NFP exceeded expectations, confirming economic resilience and driving demand for stocks, especially for companies in the domestic consumer sector. Job growth has slowed compared to March, while unemployment has not fallen below 4.0%, reducing the likelihood of additional rate hikes.
The data does not signal overheating or a recession, with the baseline soft-landing scenario remaining in place. This should keep US stock market sentiment in positive territory, although investors’ focus will shift to future Federal Reserve comments and inflation reports.
The US 30 stock index rose by more than 13% from its lowest level seen in early April 2025. However, the overall downtrend persists. If the 37,060.0 support level does not break, a sideways movement could follow. Only a breakout above the 42,535.0 resistance level could signal the beginning of the uptrend.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 30 price forecast:
The US 500 stock index formed a resistance level at 5,700.0. The index is correcting within the uptrend following the longest winning streak this year. The support level has shifted to 5,465.0.
The following scenarios are considered for the US 500 price forecast:
The US Tech index formed a resistance level at 20,180.0, with support at 19,155.0. Although the price broke above the 200-day Moving Average, the current uptrend is weak and is likely to be short-term. This may be confirmed by the price return below the 200-day Moving Average.
The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:
With the manufacturing PMI still below 50.0, the Bank of Japan will likely maintain its dovish rhetoric. Low rates continue to bolster the stock market. Export and machinery companies may receive a small boost amid expectations of further improvement.
While the indicator remains negative, its improvement eases fears of a sharp downturn. The Japanese stock market may react neutrally and positively, especially in the industrial segment, with overall caution prevailing.
A medium-term sideways range will likely form for the JP 225 index. The general trend remains downward. However, a false breakout below the 31,915.0 support level, followed by a reversal, is possible. However, such a reversal appears unlikely in the short term.
The following scenarios are considered for the JP 225 price forecast:
The manufacturing PMI below 50.0 adds to arguments in favour of a soft ECB policy, which is generally positive for the market: cheap financing will support rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and technology. An improvement in tenths of a per cent does not change the fact that business activity is declining. Therefore, the stock market is not expected to see a serious rally, but there is no panic either.
The PMI remains in contraction territory, with sentiment in the German stock market remaining cautious. Moderate gains due to a slowing decline mitigate the risk of a strong sell-off, while expectations of normalised trade conditions between the EU and US act as a growth driver.
The DE 40 stock index broke above the 22,610.0 resistance level, with support shifting to 20,150.0. The index is trading around an all-time high and may renew it. It is too early to assess the strength of the emerging uptrend until the resistance level is formed.
The following scenarios are considered for the DE 40 price forecast:
All global stock indices see upward momentum. However, the trend is yet to reverse in the US 30 and the Japanese JP 225. The positive sentiment is driven by expectations of normalised trade conditions between the US and China. If their negotiations are successful, the stock market will get a hefty boost. In the future, investors will also follow the US Federal Reserve's comments on future monetary policy.
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.