USDJPY on the verge of reversal: Double Bottom may trigger a rally to 149.05

The USDJPY rate continues to decline as sellers gear up for another attempt to test the key support level. The price currently stands at 146.03. Discover more in our analysis for 15 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Weak US inflation data supported the Japanese yen
• The USDJPY pair remains under pressure amid ongoing global trade uncertainty
• USDJPY forecast for 15 May 2025: 149.05

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has been declining for the third consecutive trading session. The US dollar is losing ground due to sustained uncertainty in global trade and speculation that the US administration favours a weaker dollar in the current negotiations. According to Washington, the relative weakness of Asian currencies gives regional exporters an unfair advantage over US companies.

Additional pressure came from weak US inflation data. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee stated that the Fed needs more information to assess how tariffs impact domestic prices. He noted that the central bank should not react to short-term stock market volatility or political commentary and cautioned against drawing quick conclusions about long-term trends amid high short-term fluctuations.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY rate is rebounding from the key support level at 145.65, forming a Double Bottom reversal pattern. There is still potential for the correction to end and the uptrend to resume. Today’s USDJPY forecast expects a bullish impulse to develop, with a target at 149.05.

Technical indicators support the upside scenario: the price remains above the EMA-285 Moving Average, signalling a continued medium-term uptrend, while the Stochastic Oscillator has turned from the oversold area, indicating a shift in short-term momentum.

A breakout and consolidation above the 147.25 level would confirm the Double Bottom pattern.

Summary

The USDJPY rate is declining amid weak US inflation data, mounting trade uncertainty, and signs that the US administration may support a weaker dollar. USDJPY technical analysis suggests the correction may soon end, with the price likely to move towards 149.05 if it breaks and consolidates above 147.25.

Bullish