EURUSD poised for reversal: outcome depends on meeting in Brussels

Ahead of the Eurogroup meeting, the EURUSD pair may complete its correction and head towards the 1.1330 resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 12 May 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Eurogroup meeting in focus
• EURUSD forecast for 12 May 2025: 1.1330

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 12 May 2025 considers today's Eurogroup meeting in Brussels, where eurozone finance ministers will discuss major economic and financial issues.

Key agenda topics include:

• Macroeconomic outlook and inflation: discussion of current conditions and inflationary pressures in the eurozone, as well as fiscal coordination to support economic stability
• Banking union: reports from the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Board on the state of the banking sector and measures to enhance financial stability
• Digital euro: progress on the legislative framework and further steps towards implementing a digital euro
• Global economic trends: exchange of views on recent international meetings, including outcomes of the G7 summit, and their impact on the eurozone’s economy
• Preparation for the annual European Stability Mechanism (ESM) meeting: discussion of current issues ahead of the June meeting of the ESM Board of Governors

The EURUSD forecast is rather optimistic, with the euro likely to regain ground against the US dollar after the correction.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD price has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. The pair is currently undergoing a downward wave in response to this signal. However, since quotes remain within the ascending channel, they could climb to the nearest resistance level at 1.1330 after the correction. A breakout above this level would pave the way for a continued upward movement.

That said, the EURUSD rate could correct towards 1.1140 and gain upward momentum after testing the support level.

Summary

With the Eurogroup meeting as today's main market driver, the outlook for EURUSD appears optimistic. The EURUSD technical analysis suggests a possible rise to 1.1330 after completing its current correction phase.